NCAA Tournament Prediction Model 2013 Preview

It’s NCAA Tournament selection Sunday! As in past years, I am going to write a program to make my picks following two principles: code it fast and do something reasonable. I am ahead of the game this year – I’m done!

The approach I am using is a modified version of the Iterative Strength Rating as described on the Net Prophet blog. I am making two modifications:

  • Incorporate margin of victory.
  • Weight late-season games more than early-season games.

I ran a preliminary version of the code on games played through March 17 (note: post updated 3/18 to include games from the last week). The model seeds the teams as follows. Let’s see how close these seeds are to the actual ones released this afternoon!

1 Louisville
1 Duke
1 Indiana
1 Miami FL
2 Kansas
2 Ohio State
2 Georgetown
2 Florida
3 Michigan
3 St Louis U.
3 Michigan St
3 New Mexico
4 Oklahoma St
4 Gonzaga
4 Marquette
4 Syracuse