2015 NFL Statistics by Player and Team

I have downloaded stats for the recently completed 2015 NFL regular season from yahoo.com, cleaned the data, and saved the data in CSV format. The files are located here. If you prefer a github repository, check here. The column headers should be self-explanatory.

You will find seven CSV files, which you can open in Excel or Google Sheets:

  • QB: quarterback data.
  • RB: running backs.
  • WR: wide receivers.
  • TE: tight ends.
  • K: kickers. I have broken out attempted and made field goals by distance into separate columns for convenience.
  • DEF: defensive stats by team.
  • ST: special teams stats by team.

Enjoy!

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2014 NFL Statistics by Player and Team in Excel

I have downloaded stats for the recently completed 2014 NFL regular season from yahoo.com, cleaned the data, and saved in Excel and CSV formats. The files are located here. The column headers should be self-explanatory.

The Excel workbook has seven worksheets:

  • QB: quarterback data.
  • RB: running backs.
  • WR: wide receivers.
  • TE: tight ends.
  • K: kickers. I have broken out attempted and made field goals by distance into separate columns for convenience.
  • DEF: defensive stats by team.
  • ST: special teams stats by team.

The same folder also has separate CSV files for each position, which may be more helpful if you are a coder.

Fantasy Football Ratings 2014

I have prepared fantasy football ratings for the 2014 NFL season based on the data from last year’s season. I hope you will find them useful! You can download the ratings here.

These ratings are reasonable but flawed. The strengths of the ratings are:

  • They are based on player performance from the 2013 season, using a somewhat standard fantasy scoring system. (6 points for touchdowns, -2 for turnovers, 1 point per 25 passing yards, 1 point per 10 passing yards, and reasonable scoring for kickers.)
  • The ratings are comparable across positions because the rating means the expected number of fantasy points that a player will score compared to a “replacement level” player for that position. I call this “Fantasy Points Over Replacement”: FPOR.
  • Touchdowns are a key contributor fantasy performance, but they are fickle: they often vary dramatically between players of the same overall skill level, and even between seasons for the same player. In a previous post I showed that passing and rushing touchdowns are lognormally distributed against the yards per attempt. I have accounted for this phenomenon in the rankings. Loosely speaking, this means that a player that scored an unexpectedly high number of touchdowns on 2013 will be projected to score fewer in 2014.
  • The ratings do a rough correction for minor injuries. Players that play in 10 or more games in a season are rated according to the number of points they score per game. Therefore a player who missed, say, two games in 2013 due to injury is not disadvantaged compared to one that did not.

There are several weaknesses:

  • I have data for several previous seasons but do not use it. This would stabilize the ratings, and we could probably account for maturation / aging of players from season-to-season.
  • Rookies are not rated.
  • We do not account for team changes. This factor is often very important as a backup for one team may end up as a starter for another, dramatically affecting fantasy performance. (I actually have a pretty good heuristic for accounting for this, but I have not implemented it in Python…only SAS and I no longer have access to a SAS license.)
  • Players who missed a large portion of the 2013 season are essentially penalized for 2014, even if they are expected to return fully.
  • I have not rated defense/special teams.

You may want to adjust the rankings accordingly. Here are the top 25 rated players (again, the full ratings are here):

Name Position RawPts AdjPts FPOR
LeSean McCoy RB 278.6 199.3125 85.96875
Jamaal Charles RB 308 194 80.65625
Josh Gordon WR 218.6 176.3571429 71.57142857
Matt Forte RB 261.3 177.46875 64.125
Calvin Johnson WR 219.2 157.7142857 52.92857143
DeMarco Murray RB 205.1 155.4642857 42.12053571
Reggie Bush RB 185.2 153.4285714 40.08482143
Jimmy Graham TE 217.5 113.90625 35.90625
Antonio Brown WR 197.9 140.53125 35.74553571
Knowshon Moreno RB 236.6 148.6875 35.34375
Adrian Peterson RB 203.7 147.5357143 34.19196429
Marshawn Lynch RB 239.3 145.59375 32.25
Le’Veon Bell RB 171.9 142.9615385 29.61778846
Demaryius Thomas WR 227 134.0625 29.27678571
A.J. Green WR 208.6 133.6875 28.90178571
Eddie Lacy RB 207.5 141.5 28.15625
Andre Johnson WR 170.7 131.90625 27.12053571
Alshon Jeffery WR 182.1 131.34375 26.55803571
Peyton Manning QB 519.98 172.48125 22.18125
Stephen Gostkowski K 176 176 22
Drew Brees QB 435.68 172.2 21.9
Ryan Mathews RB 184.4 133.5 20.15625
DeSean Jackson WR 187.2 124.875 20.08928571
Pierre Garcon WR 162.6 124.3125 19.52678571
Jordy Nelson WR 179.4 123.1875 18.40178571

FPOR is the adjusted, cross-position score described earlier. RawPts is simply 2013 fantasy points. AdjPts are the points once touchdowns have been “corrected” and injuries accounted for.

We will see how the ratings work out! If I have time I will post a retrospective once the season is done.

2013 NFL Statistics by Player and Team in Excel

I have downloaded stats for the recently completed 2013 NFL regular season from yahoo.com, cleaned the data, and saved in Excel format. The files are located here. The column headers should be self-explanatory.

There are seven worksheets:

  • QB: quarterback data.
  • RB: running backs.
  • WR: wide receivers.
  • TE: tight ends.
  • K: kickers. For the yardage columns, the portion before the dash indicates FG made, the portion after attempted. So 4-5 means 4 made out of 5 from the distance range.
  • DEF: defensive stats by team.
  • ST: special teams stats by team.

The same folder also contains CSV files broken out for each position.

NFL Fantasy Football Statistics in CSV Format

You can find commonly used stats for NFL players in CSV format for the 2010, 2011, 2012 NFL seasons at this location.

For each season there are seven files:

  • QB: quarterback data.
  • RB: running backs.
  • WR: wide receivers.
  • TE: tight ends.
  • K: kickers. Attempts and made field goals are broken out by distance in separate columns.
  • Def: defensive stats by team.
  • ST: special teams stats by team.

Updated 8/21/2013: Added the 2010 season.

2012 Fantasy Football Prediction Model: Retrospective

Several months ago I laid out a simple model for forecasting fantasy football performance. My post included a table ranking players by value for draft purposes. Appropriately, in our league at Nielsen I used my own model to draft (selecting Ray Rice in the first round, followed by Victor Cruz and Wes Welker). I screwed up in a later round and accidentally selected Jason Whiten instead of Matt Ryan – but other than that I strictly followed the advice of my blog: always choose the highest ranked player from positions that needed to be filled.

So how did I do? Well, I finished third out of twelve – not bad. Let’s take a retrospective look at my model to see how accurately I predicted the 2012 fantasy football season.

My previous post provides actual 2012 statistics for all positions. I scored each player and compared to my projections. Note that my projections did not include players who did not participate in the 2011 season (e.g. Jamaal Charles) or rookies (e.g. RG III), so they are not included in the analysis. If I regard the difference between actual and projected fantasy points as “error”, then I can compute R^2 to summarize fit. I computed R^2 for two projections:

  • Project 2012 points as equal to 2011 points (“2011” in the table below)
  • Project 2012 points by adjusting 2011 points as described in my post (“Model”)

The results are as follows:

Pos N 2011 Model
DEF 29 0.899414 0.899414
K 26 0.961511 0.961511
QB 31 0.909683 0.887465
RB 101 0.774406 0.797133
TE 78 0.81725 0.824893
WR 124 0.806109 0.810808

The overall R^2 for the model is around 0.852. I didn’t really dig into the details too much, but I think we can reasonably conclude that:

  • Kickers and Defense are pretty darn stable (probably because they largely depend on the strength of the team and opposition, which does not generally massively change between seasons).
  • RB performance was the hardest to predict.
  • The model worked in the sense that most positions ended up with better R^2 than if I had simply used 2011 numbers.
  • The exception is for the QB position, which perhaps implies that my assumptions about touchdown production do not apply to the QB position.

In the table below I compare the points per game projected by the model (Projected) with the actual number of fantasy points in 2012 (Actual) and the relative error. I highlight a row green when the relative error is less than 10%. If it is less than 25% it is yellow, and red otherwise.

Name

Pos

Projected

Actual

Rel. Err.

Drew Brees

QB

20.65682

21.59875

0.043611

Aaron Rodgers

QB

22.32247

21.35625

0.045243

Tom Brady

QB

20.06681

21.2675

0.056456

Cam Newton

QB

19.92028

20.17875

0.012809

Adrian Peterson

RB

13.7407

19.0875

0.280121

Matt Ryan

QB

15.70105

19.05375

0.17596

Tony Romo

QB

15.42652

17.18875

0.102522

Matthew Stafford

QB

18.70318

17.08

0.095034

Ben Roethlisberger

QB

14.58558

17.06154

0.145119

Arian Foster

RB

18.69446

16.38125

0.141211

Andy Dalton

QB

12.47327

15.6725

0.20413

Marshawn Lynch

RB

13.48645

15.4125

0.124967

Josh Freeman

QB

14.20246

15.40625

0.078137

Michael Vick

QB

21.37533

15.168

0.409239

Carson Palmer

QB

20.68852

14.688

0.408532

Eli Manning

QB

16.32711

14.5575

0.12156

Joe Flacco

QB

12.35432

14.555

0.151198

Kevin Kolb

QB

11.33343

14.12667

0.197728

Matt Schaub

QB

22.60787

13.96375

0.61904

Sam Bradford

QB

16.83711

13.92375

0.209236

Ray Rice

RB

17.53886

13.88125

0.263493

Calvin Johnson

WR

15.14139

13.775

0.099193

Brandon Marshall

WR

9.919735

13.55

0.267916

Ryan Fitzpatrick

QB

13.05769

13.35625

0.022354

C.J. Spiller

RB

7.19662

13.26875

0.457626

Philip Rivers

QB

14.7622

13.015

0.134245

Dez Bryant

WR

9.147546

13.0125

0.297019

Rob Gronkowski

TE

13.32919

13

0.025322

Stevan Ridley

RB

3.349849

12.4625

0.731206

A.J. Green

WR

9.735794

12.4375

0.217223

Demaryius Thomas

WR

6.994023

12.3375

0.433109

Jay Cutler

QB

20.61836

12.308

0.6752

Frank Gore

RB

10.8703

12.3

0.116236

Alex Smith

QB

12.57711

12.268

0.025197

LeSean McCoy

RB

16.10583

12.10833

0.330144

Christian Ponder

QB

14.64461

12.04375

0.215951

Jake Locker

QB

9.065129

12.01273

0.245373

Chicago Bears

DE

8.4375

11.875

0.289474

Matt Forte

RB

14.61648

11.82667

0.235892

2012 NFL Statistics by player and Team in CSV format

I have downloaded stats for the recently completed 2012 NFL regular season from yahoo.com, cleaned the data, and saved in CSV format. The files are located here. The column headers should be self-explanatory.

There are seven files:

  • QB: quarterback data.
  • RB: running backs.
  • WR: wide receivers.
  • TE: tight ends.
  • K: kickers. For the yardage columns, the first entry indicates FG made, the second attempted. So 4-5 means 4 made out of 5 from the distance range.
  • Def: defensive stats by team.
  • ST: special teams stats by team.

I have also provided a spreadsheet that combines all of the above.