NBA Game Results: 2013-2014

The NBA preseason is in full swing! For those of you who like to fool around with data, I have prepared a CSV file with game-by-game results for the 2013-2014 season. The data was downloaded from basketball-reference.com using Power Query and cleaned up (see below).

The format is simple:

  • Date = When the game was played
  • Visitor = three letter abbreviation of the visiting team
  • VisitorPts = visiting team score
  • VisitorSeasonWins = number of wins by the visiting team for the entire season
  • Home = TLA of home team
  • HomePts = home team score
  • HomeSeasonWins = number of wins by the home team for the entire season
  • WinMargin = HomeSeasonWins – VisitorSeasonWins
  • Margin = HomePts – VistorPts

I include the number of wins for each team in the files because I wanted to see how often good teams beat bad teams. The diagram below plots the difference in total wins for teams against the margin of victory. I have used the trendline feature in Excel to verify that while (by definition) good teams beat bad ones frequently, the variability is quite high. Notice the R^2 value.

NBAWinsVersusMargin

The intercept for the trendline is 2.5967, which represents the home court advantage in points. In a future post I hope to use this data to make some predictions about the upcoming NBA season.

Enjoy!

Author: natebrix

Follow me on twitter at @natebrix.

3 thoughts on “NBA Game Results: 2013-2014”

  1. Hey, Nice work. I am also working on a similar Project! What kind of model(s) you are planning to adopt to build your predictive model! I am just curious if you have tried any linear models on this. A little skeptic about its fit since 22% r-square shows low variation. Again Great work!
    Thanks!

    1. Thank you. I only have a couple of hours a year to focus on this kind of thing per year, so the model will be very simple. The R^2 is horrible here, to be sure, but we do get a plausible home court advantage value, which I will use in a future post.

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