Fantasy Football Ratings 2014

I have prepared fantasy football ratings for the 2014 NFL season based on the data from last year’s season. I hope you will find them useful! You can download the ratings here.

These ratings are reasonable but flawed. The strengths of the ratings are:

  • They are based on player performance from the 2013 season, using a somewhat standard fantasy scoring system. (6 points for touchdowns, -2 for turnovers, 1 point per 25 passing yards, 1 point per 10 passing yards, and reasonable scoring for kickers.)
  • The ratings are comparable across positions because the rating means the expected number of fantasy points that a player will score compared to a “replacement level” player for that position. I call this “Fantasy Points Over Replacement”: FPOR.
  • Touchdowns are a key contributor fantasy performance, but they are fickle: they often vary dramatically between players of the same overall skill level, and even between seasons for the same player. In a previous post I showed that passing and rushing touchdowns are lognormally distributed against the yards per attempt. I have accounted for this phenomenon in the rankings. Loosely speaking, this means that a player that scored an unexpectedly high number of touchdowns on 2013 will be projected to score fewer in 2014.
  • The ratings do a rough correction for minor injuries. Players that play in 10 or more games in a season are rated according to the number of points they score per game. Therefore a player who missed, say, two games in 2013 due to injury is not disadvantaged compared to one that did not.

There are several weaknesses:

  • I have data for several previous seasons but do not use it. This would stabilize the ratings, and we could probably account for maturation / aging of players from season-to-season.
  • Rookies are not rated.
  • We do not account for team changes. This factor is often very important as a backup for one team may end up as a starter for another, dramatically affecting fantasy performance. (I actually have a pretty good heuristic for accounting for this, but I have not implemented it in Python…only SAS and I no longer have access to a SAS license.)
  • Players who missed a large portion of the 2013 season are essentially penalized for 2014, even if they are expected to return fully.
  • I have not rated defense/special teams.

You may want to adjust the rankings accordingly. Here are the top 25 rated players (again, the full ratings are here):

Name Position RawPts AdjPts FPOR
LeSean McCoy RB 278.6 199.3125 85.96875
Jamaal Charles RB 308 194 80.65625
Josh Gordon WR 218.6 176.3571429 71.57142857
Matt Forte RB 261.3 177.46875 64.125
Calvin Johnson WR 219.2 157.7142857 52.92857143
DeMarco Murray RB 205.1 155.4642857 42.12053571
Reggie Bush RB 185.2 153.4285714 40.08482143
Jimmy Graham TE 217.5 113.90625 35.90625
Antonio Brown WR 197.9 140.53125 35.74553571
Knowshon Moreno RB 236.6 148.6875 35.34375
Adrian Peterson RB 203.7 147.5357143 34.19196429
Marshawn Lynch RB 239.3 145.59375 32.25
Le’Veon Bell RB 171.9 142.9615385 29.61778846
Demaryius Thomas WR 227 134.0625 29.27678571
A.J. Green WR 208.6 133.6875 28.90178571
Eddie Lacy RB 207.5 141.5 28.15625
Andre Johnson WR 170.7 131.90625 27.12053571
Alshon Jeffery WR 182.1 131.34375 26.55803571
Peyton Manning QB 519.98 172.48125 22.18125
Stephen Gostkowski K 176 176 22
Drew Brees QB 435.68 172.2 21.9
Ryan Mathews RB 184.4 133.5 20.15625
DeSean Jackson WR 187.2 124.875 20.08928571
Pierre Garcon WR 162.6 124.3125 19.52678571
Jordy Nelson WR 179.4 123.1875 18.40178571

FPOR is the adjusted, cross-position score described earlier. RawPts is simply 2013 fantasy points. AdjPts are the points once touchdowns have been “corrected” and injuries accounted for.

We will see how the ratings work out! If I have time I will post a retrospective once the season is done.


Author: natebrix

Follow me on twitter at @natebrix.

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